Have you filled out a bracket yet? If not, you’ve got about thirty minutes. And I think you should. Join your office pool, a group of friends, or even compete on ESPN’s various groups (Around the Horn and my favorite show PTI are both sponsoring bracket challenges).
I know, I know. You don’t know who to pick! I’ll let you in on a little secret. No one does, really. Because here’s the thing: anything, and I mean ANYTHING, can happen in this madness of March. Sure, a 16 has yet to ever beat a 1 in the opening round, but it’ll happen eventually. Am I suggesting you take Arkansas-Pine Bluff over Duke? Despite the fact that APB is on a roll after stomping Winthrop in the play-in game, no. I’m not suggesting that.
Are you scared what others are going to think of your bracket? Let me fill you in on another secret (who knew Bracketopolis was such a coven of hidden information?): no one expects you to do well. The hot guy who came by offering you entry into his pool with a twinkle in his eye? That twinkle is probably because you’re hot and he wanted an excuse to talk to you. It could also be that he figures you’re going to pick based on scientific information such as team color or where your friends, boyfriends and ex-boyfriends went to school, and that he’s going to take your $5 and eventually pocket it on the 5th of April.
Let’s talk worst case and best case scenarios. In my personal life, I always refer to this as WCS and BCS. I’ll do the same here.
WCS: You THINK it’s embarrassing yourself with horrible, horrible picks. This actually isn’t true. Your WCS is doing well and having no valid reason for the teams you chose to advance. Trust me on this. If you’re a girl who doesn’t care about college basketball, please listen to me: do NOT make it common knowledge that you’ve just picked on a whim. Lie, lie, LIE. Tell the people you’re eviscerating that your older brother or your dad helped you. Explain that you watched the conference tournament games last week and your interest was genuinely piqued. Or, heck, you could take 30 minutes and do a little research. If there are guys reading who don’t know much about basketball, you’re not off the obnoxious hook either if you do well.
People like me will hate you. In fact, I have stopped filling out brackets. I was guilted into competing in my physical therapist’s office (it was my last day and I’m going to miss all my new dear friends), but I didn’t have to pay to enter and I made it perfectly clear that I had no intention of doing well. The fact that I’ll be back in New York while the results are pouring in helped, too. Because back to my original point, I get mad when I don’t do well. And I never do. The one thing that angers me more than screwing up my bracket is hearing about my English co-worker in England who doesn’t care a lick for basketball but managed to beat me soundly after the first weekend. (Disclaimer: this is not to say that the beautiful English nation and its people can’t know about basketball – it is to say this particular individual admittedly knew nothing – and actually threw me under the bus in a pool-wide email, later apologizing and saying I was the only one he felt comfortable embarrassing in said email. Gee. Thanks. But no, I’m not bitter about it…..two years later….)
So are we clear? WCS is you doing well and anyone you’re trying to impress being irritated by your lucky existence.
BCS: Sucking it up. Submitting a bracket that doesn’t do well. I’m not saying to pick all double-digit seeds over their much more qualified counterparts. That would be ridiculous and if you’re going to do that, just save your money and don’t enter. In fact, if you gave any thought to picking all upsets, please stop reading. Now. I’m not kidding.
Your BCS is making reasonable picks that simply don’t do well. It’s one of those perfect “in’s” we used to discuss, back when I would make regular contributions to this blog. You’ll have the opportunity to seek guidance from your fellow competitors. You may even get an invite to watch a game or two with everyone after work or on the weekend. When you’re not a threat and express sincere interest, you’re actually adorable. Keep that in mind.
Instead of going through every single game this weekend, I would like to hand over a couple of tips. As I’ve explained, I’m no oracle and (as evidenced by the last several months of my life) I am not lucky. In fact, if horrible luck sprouted two legs (well… one healthy one) and a head of hair, you’d have me. You need luck or foresight to do extremely well during March. But what I CAN do is offer a few practical tips as you make your choices before submitting prior to noon!
1) When in doubt, go with the better seed. I hope I don’t need to tell you, but the smaller the number, the better the team. In theory, that is. But if you’re stuck, defer to the littler number.
2) You NEED a 5-12 upset in your bracket. Sure, they don’t happen every SINGLE year, but they do happen with freakish regularity. Here are your choices and which you should choose:
a) Michigan State – New Mexico State: I’d say there’s no way this would happen, but then I think about the fact that Michigan State lost to Minnesota. But then I think that Tom Izzo won’t lose in the first round. I don’t think MSU has had an impressive win since January, but does NMSU have what it takes? Its quick tempo could cause problems for the Spartans, but I wouldn’t recommend picking NMSU in this one.
b) Butler – UTEP: Ahh, UTEP. This is a team that won sixteen in a row this season and features Derrick Caracter, a transfer out of Louisville. Butler doesn’t have a lot of tournament advancement experience. UTEP was shocked in the Conference USA tournament finals by Houston. Could a team that loses to 19-15 Houston bounce the four-loss Butler Bulldogs? It doesn’t seem likely, but I wouldn’t count it out. Never underestimate a chip on the shoulder of a great team scorned. I just couldn’t tell you if UTEP is truly great. In my mind, you wouldn’t be crazy for picking UTEP. Or Butler. Or UTEP.
c) Temple – Cornell: This is the popular upset pick. Temple won the regular season and tournament of a competitive, three bid A-10 conference and was rewarded with a lousy five seed. Cornell almost beat Kansas IN Lawrence, handily won the Ivy League AND features a massive seven footer, so no one’s entirely sure where their lousy twelve seed is coming from. Yes. I re-used “lousy”. I’m biased here because I watched a lot of Temple, but the Owls play more *NSYNC (meaning as a group, but I haven’t looked at their iPods) than any major conference team I’ve watched. I can’t see them looking past Cornell and losing in the first round, but I don’t think it’s going to be a walk in the park. I go with Temple, but you wouldn’t be off the charts if you gave Cornell a try.
d) Texas A&M – Utah State: This is a tricky matchup. Most experts consider Utah State to be horribly underseeded (sensing a theme here?), but all nine of Texas A&M’s losses came from tournament teams. This means they didn’t have any badly embarrassing games this season. So, will A&M lose its tenth game to a tournament team in Utah State? I am not inclined to think so, but crazier things have (and probably will) happen.
3) Do NOT have all four one seeds in your Final Four. Just don’t. It’s not likely. The biggest gripe I’ve heard about this year’s bracket is Kansas and Kentucky getting hosed, while Duke, the #3 one seed (Kansas is #1, Kentucky #2, meaning – in theory, of course – these teams should have an easier trip to the Final Four) gets an overseeded two and four (a stumbling-into-the-postseason Villanova and Robbie-Hummell-less-can-score-11-in-a-half-against-Minnesota Purdue).
I don’t think you’d be crazy if you had Duke losing to Baylor. Keep in mind, this team may have more ACC tournament titles than any other ACC team (9 of the last 12 included), but the Blue Devils haven’t gotten past the Elite Eight in six years, including a couple second-round exits. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be completely insane to have your winner of the Cal-Louisville matchup bumping Duke, either.
You could have Syracuse (who lost to then-bubble team Louisville in its last home game before losing in the first round of the Big East tournament to Georgetown and losing Arinze Onoaku for likely the first full weekend, perhaps longer) losing to Butler/UTEP/Vandy, Pitt/Kansas State.
I don’t recommend a Kansas-less Final Four, but if you’re feeling ambitious, Ohio State looked fantastic in the Big Ten tournament final. But it needed two overtimes to get past 14-loss Illinois. Maryland could potentially mount an upset bid, which would be led by the phenomenal (and kind of annoying in his phenomenality) Grieves Vasquez.
Kentucky could get a little trouble from Temple/Cornell (assuming the winner of this matchup gets past Wisconsin), but the Wildcats are more likely to be downed by West Virginia. This Mountaineers team won the Big East Tournament for the first time in school history and might just think they deserved a one seed over the ailing, floundering Orangemen of Syracuse or the barely-win-the-ACC-Tournament-and-share-the-regular-season-title Duke Blue Devils. I mentioned this earlier, but never underestimate a team with angry motivation.
4) By the same token, don’t have all four one seeds losing before the Final Four. Pick one, maybe two to go down.
5) Purdue is not getting past the first weekend. Whether you have Siena (a team that can knock out a healthy team in the first round, let alone the stumbling Boilermakers) in the first round or Utah St./Texas A&M in the second round, don’t let Purdue stick around. They’re not going anywhere.
6) Feel free to ignore everything I’ve recommended. This has been an insane year of college basketball – the #1 team in the country lost an obscene number of times, conference tournaments sparked some ridiculous upsets, and I don’t think we’ve seen the last of them. Combine a tournament where anything can happen with a year where (just about) everything already HAS happened and you’ve got a crazy few weeks ahead.
Bottom line, if Barack Obama can take ten minutes out of his day to fill out a bracket, so can you. Ready, set, GO NOW!!!
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